SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 48.89%. A win for Baltika had a probability of 25.85% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (8.83%). The likeliest Baltika win was 0-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | Baltika |
48.89% ( -0.94) | 25.26% ( 0.42) | 25.85% ( 0.52) |
| Both teams to score 51.81% ( -0.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.89% ( -1.3) | 51.11% ( 1.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.03% ( -1.15) | 72.96% ( 1.15) |
| Lokomotiv Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.07% ( -0.92) | 20.92% ( 0.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.34% ( -1.45) | 53.65% ( 1.46) |
| Baltika Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.52% ( -0.26) | 34.48% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.81% ( -0.28) | 71.19% ( 0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | Baltika |
| 1-0 @ 11.28% ( 0.27) 2-1 @ 9.4% ( -0.11)2-0 @ 8.83% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 4.9% ( -0.2)3-0 @ 4.6% ( -0.15)3-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 1.92% ( -0.13)4-0 @ 1.8% ( -0.11)4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.53% Total : 48.88% | 1-1 @ 12.01% ( 0.2) 0-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.37)2-2 @ 5% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.26% | 0-1 @ 7.68% ( 0.34) 1-2 @ 6.4% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 4.09% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 2.27% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.18% Total : 25.85% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 28 |
| 2 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 13 | 14 | 26 |
| 3 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 20 |
| 6 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 18 |
| 7 | Dynamo Moscow | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Nizhny Novgorod | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | RostovRostov | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 16 |
| 10 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 16 |
| 11 | Rubin Kazan | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 16 |
| 12 | Fakel | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 15 |
| 13 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | OrenburgOrenburg | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 | Baltika | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Sochi | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 9 |
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