SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 44.54%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| FC Krasnodar | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow |
44.54% ( 2.06) | 25.04% ( -0.23) | 30.42% ( -1.84) |
| Both teams to score 55.76% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.54% ( 0.27) | 47.46% ( -0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.33% ( 0.25) | 69.67% ( -0.25) |
| FC Krasnodar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.67% ( 1.07) | 21.33% ( -1.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.71% ( 1.63) | 54.28% ( -1.63) |
| Lokomotiv Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.87% ( -1.08) | 29.12% ( 1.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.95% ( -1.35) | 65.05% ( 1.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Krasnodar | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow |
| 1-0 @ 9.6% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.21)2-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.39)3-1 @ 4.71% ( 0.25)3-0 @ 3.82% ( 0.31)3-2 @ 2.91% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.15)4-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.16)4-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.53% Total : 44.54% | 1-1 @ 11.84% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 6.21% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.04% | 0-1 @ 7.66% ( -0.32) 1-2 @ 7.3% ( -0.29)0-2 @ 4.73% ( -0.35)1-3 @ 3% ( -0.22)2-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.21)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.53% Total : 30.42% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 27 |
| 2 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Dynamo Moscow | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Spartak Moscow | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 16 |
| 8 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | Nizhny Novgorod | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | OrenburgOrenburg | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Baltika | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | RostovRostov | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Rubin Kazan | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 9 |
| 15 | Fakel | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Sochi | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 6 |
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