SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 44.54%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 30.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-2 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sochi | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow |
44.54% ( -0.78) | 24.6% ( 0.12) | 30.86% ( 0.66) |
| Both teams to score 57.5% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.72% ( -0.2) | 45.27% ( 0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.38% ( -0.2) | 67.61% ( 0.19) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.57% ( -0.42) | 20.42% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.13% ( -0.67) | 52.87% ( 0.67) |
| Lokomotiv Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.26% ( 0.33) | 27.74% ( -0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.69% ( 0.43) | 63.31% ( -0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sochi | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow |
| 2-1 @ 9.17% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 9% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 7.15% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 4.85% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 3.79% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.93% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.5% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.81% Total : 44.54% | 1-1 @ 11.54% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.67% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.33% ( -0)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.6% | 1-2 @ 7.4% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 7.27% ( 0.13)0-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 3.16% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.86% Total : 30.86% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 28 |
| 2 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 20 |
| 6 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 18 |
| 7 | Dynamo Moscow | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Nizhny Novgorod | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubin Kazan | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 13 |
| 11 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Fakel | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | OrenburgOrenburg | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 11 |
| 14 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 | RostovRostov | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Sochi | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 9 |
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