SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Sochi | 9 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Akhmat Grozny | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 8 | -2 | 9 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 8 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Nizhny Novgorod | 8 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Krylia Sovetov | 8 | -3 | 9 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 57.31%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 17.47%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.25%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.51%), while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 0-1 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Akhmat Grozny | Draw | Nizhny Novgorod |
57.31% ( -0.05) | 25.23% ( 0.02) | 17.47% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 41.42% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.73% ( -0.04) | 59.27% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.32% ( -0.04) | 79.68% ( 0.03) |
| Akhmat Grozny Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.27% ( -0.04) | 20.74% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.64% ( -0.05) | 53.36% ( 0.06) |
| Nizhny Novgorod Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.25% ( 0.01) | 47.75% ( -0) |
