Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 75.85%. A draw had a probability of 15.5% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 8.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.51%) and 0-3 (10.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.36%), while for a Southampton win it was 1-0 (3.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
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