SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 57.81%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Leicester City had a probability of 20.19%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.91%) and 0-2 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Leicester City win it was 2-1 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Leicester City | Draw | Arsenal |
20.19% ( 0.09) | 22% ( 0.03) | 57.81% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 55.31% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.89% ( 0) | 43.11% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.49% ( 0) | 65.51% ( -0) |
| Leicester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.8% ( 0.09) | 35.2% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.04% ( 0.09) | 71.96% ( -0.09) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.35% ( -0.04) | 14.65% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.21% ( -0.07) | 42.79% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Leicester City | Draw | Arsenal |
| 2-1 @ 5.4% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 5.38% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 2.81% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.88% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.8% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.94% Total : 20.19% | 1-1 @ 10.34% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.16% 3-3 @ 1.16% ( 0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 22% | 1-2 @ 9.93% ( -0) 0-1 @ 9.91% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 9.51% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 6.36% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 6.09% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.32% ( 0)1-4 @ 3.05% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 2.93% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.59% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.17% ( -0)0-5 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.82% Total : 57.81% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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