SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 56.46%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 19.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.54%) and 1-2 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.23%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-0 (6.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Chelsea |
19.9% ( -0) | 23.64% ( -0) | 56.46% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 49.62% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.54% ( 0.01) | 50.45% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.62% ( 0.01) | 72.38% ( -0.01) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.27% | 39.72% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 23.6% | 76.4% ( -0) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.31% ( 0) | 17.68% ( -0.01) |
