Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 54.42%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 21.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.63%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (7.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
