Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Georgia win with a probability of 55.56%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 19.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Georgia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.41%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 0-1 (7.43%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Georgia would win this match.