SM
| Current League C4 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Bulgaria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | North Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Gibraltar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League C4 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Bulgaria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | North Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Gibraltar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 60.47%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 15.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.13%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.97%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 0-1 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that North Macedonia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| North Macedonia | Draw | Gibraltar |
60.47% ( -0.03) | 24.2% ( -0.01) | 15.33% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 40.13% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.27% ( 0.09) | 58.73% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.74% ( 0.07) | 79.26% ( -0.07) |
| North Macedonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.71% ( 0.03) | 19.29% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.96% ( 0.04) | 51.03% ( -0.04) |
| Gibraltar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.72% ( 0.11) | 50.28% ( -0.11) |
