SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 72.25%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 10.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.02%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (3.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
72.25% ( -0.03) | 16.93% ( 0.01) | 10.82% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 49.5% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.86% ( -0.01) | 39.13% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.53% ( -0.01) | 61.46% ( 0.01) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.5% ( -0.01) | 9.5% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 68.14% ( -0.02) | 31.86% ( 0.02) |
| Cheltenham Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.69% ( 0.02) | 45.31% ( -0.02) |
