SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 37.19%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 35.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.1%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 1-0 (10.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Oxford United | Draw | Derby County |
35.75% ( -0.03) | 27.06% ( 0.01) | 37.19% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 50.71% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.38% ( -0.03) | 54.62% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.04% ( -0.02) | 75.96% ( 0.02) |
| Oxford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.78% ( -0.03) | 29.22% ( 0.03) |
