SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 51.29%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 25.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.28%) and 0-2 (8.22%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 2-1 (6.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Real Madrid |
25.33% ( 1.83) | 23.37% ( 0.25) | 51.29% ( -2.09) |
| Both teams to score 57.42% ( 1.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.53% ( 0.64) | 43.47% ( -0.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.13% ( 0.62) | 65.87% ( -0.63) |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.19% ( 1.87) | 30.81% ( -1.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.92% ( 2.15) | 67.08% ( -2.15) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.99% ( -0.52) | 17.01% ( 0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.86% ( -0.93) | 47.13% ( 0.93) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Real Madrid |
| 2-1 @ 6.43% ( 0.36) 1-0 @ 6.17% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 3.63% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 2.53% ( 0.26)3-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.2)3-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.17)Other @ 2.9% Total : 25.33% | 1-1 @ 10.92% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.22)0-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.15)3-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.19% Total : 23.37% | 1-2 @ 9.68% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 9.28% ( -0.43)0-2 @ 8.22% ( -0.53)1-3 @ 5.72% ( -0.17)0-3 @ 4.86% ( -0.4)2-3 @ 3.37% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 2.53% ( -0.12)0-4 @ 2.15% ( -0.22)2-4 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)Other @ 4% Total : 51.29% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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