Despite witnessing Ajax succumb to a rare defeat at the weekend, AZ will know that the giants of Dutch football will be further motivated to prevail on Wednesday evening. With that in mind, we feel that Ajax could emerge victorious in rather comfortable fashion.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 42.16%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 32.57% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.91%) and 0-2 (6.95%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
