Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 37.44%. A win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 34.13% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.82%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Newell's Old Boys win was 0-1 (11.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.
