Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 52.19%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 21.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.83%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (8.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
