SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 41.49%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 34.1% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.12%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Porto |
34.1% ( -0.03) | 24.41% ( 0) | 41.49% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 59.42% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.69% ( -0.02) | 43.31% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.29% ( -0.02) | 65.71% ( 0.03) |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.2% ( -0.03) | 24.8% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.63% ( -0.04) | 59.38% ( 0.04) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.02% ( 0) | 20.98% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.25% ( 0) | 53.75% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Porto |
| 2-1 @ 7.9% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.26% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.06% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.67% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.87% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.35% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.28% ( -0)4-2 @ 1% ( -0)Other @ 2.72% Total : 34.1% | 1-1 @ 11.32% 2-2 @ 6.17% ( -0)0-0 @ 5.2% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.49% ( -0)Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.4% | 1-2 @ 8.85% ( 0) 0-1 @ 8.12% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.34% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.6% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.3% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.21% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.8% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.29% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.25% ( -0)Other @ 2.72% Total : 41.49% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Manchester CityMan City | 35 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 92 | 31 | 61 | 85 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 36 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 83 | 42 | 41 | 81 |
| 3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 35 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 66 |
| 4 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 66 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 65 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 66 | 45 | 21 | 58 |
| 7 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 65 | 59 | 6 | 57 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 57 |
| 9 | Brentford | 36 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 54 | 45 | 9 | 53 |
| 10 | Fulham | 36 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 51 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 43 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 43 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 40 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 36 | 11 | 6 | 19 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 39 |
| 15 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 37 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 67 | -31 | 34 |
| 17 | Everton | 36 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 32 | 56 | -24 | 32 |
| 18 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 36 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 71 | -25 | 31 |
| 19 | Leicester CityLeicester | 36 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 49 | 67 | -18 | 30 |
| R | Southampton | 36 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 66 | -35 | 24 |
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