We said: Avai 1-2 Palmeiras
Spurred on by the bitter taste of defeat to their close rivals, Palmeiras are surely set to recover immediately, as they fulfil their third fixture in under a week - significantly, Avai's defensive record is among the worst in Serie A so far.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 52.39%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Avai had a probability of 22.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.88%) and 1-2 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.85%), while for an Avai win it was 1-0 (7.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
-0.41) 
0.68) 
