Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.4%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Macarthur in this match.
