SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 38.17%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 36.46% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-0 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
36.46% ( 0.65) | 25.37% ( 0.07) | 38.17% ( -0.72) |
| Both teams to score 56.43% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.64% ( -0.24) | 47.35% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.43% ( -0.22) | 69.57% ( 0.22) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.66% ( 0.26) | 25.34% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.87% ( 0.36) | 60.13% ( -0.36) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.59% ( -0.49) | 24.41% ( 0.48) |
