SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 43.2%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 32.73% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
32.73% ( 1.1) | 24.06% ( 0.09) | 43.2% ( -1.19) |
| Both teams to score 60.22% ( 0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.92% | 42.08% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.52% | 64.48% ( 0) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.98% ( 0.66) | 25.01% ( -0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.32% ( 0.91) | 59.67% ( -0.91) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.3% ( -0.51) | 19.69% ( 0.51) |
