SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 75.73%. A draw had a probability of 14.8% and a win for Connah's Quay Nomads had a probability of 9.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.52%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.87%), while for a Connah's Quay Nomads win it was 1-2 (2.85%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.
| Result | ||
| The New Saints | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
75.73% ( 4.02) | 14.81% ( -1.62) | 9.46% ( -2.4) |
| Both teams to score 52.36% ( -2.97) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.15% ( 0.69) | 32.85% ( -0.69) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.45% ( 0.79) | 54.56% ( -0.78) |
| The New Saints Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.78% ( 1) | 7.22% ( -0.99) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 73.8% ( 2.55) | 26.2% ( -2.55) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.43% ( -3.85) | 43.57% ( 3.86) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.23% ( -3.38) | 79.77% ( 3.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| The New Saints | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
| 2-0 @ 10.86% ( 0.68) 3-0 @ 9.52% ( 1.03)2-1 @ 9.03% ( -0.38)1-0 @ 8.27% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 7.91% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 6.25% ( 0.95)4-1 @ 5.2% ( 0.3)5-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.64)3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.33)5-1 @ 2.73% ( 0.28)4-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.1)6-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.34)6-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.18)5-2 @ 1.13% ( 0)Other @ 3.46% Total : 75.72% | 1-1 @ 6.87% ( -0.66) 2-2 @ 3.75% ( -0.59)0-0 @ 3.15% ( -0.12)3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.2)Other @ 0.14% Total : 14.81% | 1-2 @ 2.85% ( -0.62) 0-1 @ 2.61% ( -0.4)0-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.31)2-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.3)Other @ 1.87% Total : 9.46% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| 3 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Bala TownBala Town | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Colwyn Bay | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 |
| 11 | Barry Town UnitedBarry | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
| 12 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 | -14 | 1 |
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