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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 41.82%. A win for Cardiff MU had a probability of 33.73% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.22%) and 0-2 (6.43%). The likeliest Cardiff MU win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cardiff MU | Draw | Newtown AFC |
33.73% ( 0.44) | 24.44% ( 0.01) | 41.82% ( -0.45) |
| Both teams to score 59.21% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.45% ( 0.07) | 43.54% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.06% ( 0.07) | 65.93% ( -0.07) |
| Cardiff MU Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.88% ( 0.3) | 25.12% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.18% ( 0.4) | 59.82% ( -0.4) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.07% ( -0.18) | 20.92% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.34% ( -0.28) | 53.65% ( 0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cardiff MU | Draw | Newtown AFC |
| 2-1 @ 7.85% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 7.26% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 3.61% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.83% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 2.31% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.63% Total : 33.73% | 1-1 @ 11.35% 2-2 @ 6.14% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 5.26% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.43% | 1-2 @ 8.88% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 8.22% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 6.43% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 4.63% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 3.35% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 3.2% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.81% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.73% Total : 41.82% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 8 | 29 | 29 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 14 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 17 |
| 5 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | Bala TownBala Town | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 16 |
| 8 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | Colwyn Bay | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 8 |
| 11 | Barry Town UnitedBarry | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 6 |
| 12 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 25 | -19 | 5 |
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