Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 43.18%. A win for Newtown AFC had a probability of 30.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.74%). The likeliest Newtown AFC win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Cardiff MU in this match.
0.04) 
-0.09) 
