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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 47.99%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 29.46% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.01%) and 0-2 (6.52%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 2-1 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Newtown AFC in this match.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Newtown AFC |
29.46% ( -0.1) | 22.54% ( 0.01) | 47.99% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 64% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.64% ( -0.13) | 36.36% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.51% ( -0.14) | 58.49% ( 0.14) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.8% ( -0.13) | 24.2% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.46% ( -0.18) | 58.54% ( 0.18) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.44% ( -0.02) | 15.56% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.49% ( -0.04) | 44.51% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Newtown AFC |
| 2-1 @ 7.05% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 5.34% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.79% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.34% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.1% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.79% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.77% Total : 29.46% | 1-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.56% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.77% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.35% Total : 22.54% | 1-2 @ 9.25% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.01% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 6.52% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 5.73% ( 0)2-3 @ 4.07% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 4.04% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 2.67% 2-4 @ 1.89% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.88% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 0.99% ( -0)Other @ 3.95% Total : 47.99% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 22 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 83 | 8 | 75 | 60 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 44 |
| 3 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 41 |
| 4 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 41 |
| 5 | Bala TownBala Town | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 40 |
| 6 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 33 |
| 7 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 25 |
| 9 | Flint Town UnitedFlint Town | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 24 |
| 10 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 22 |
| 11 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 20 |
| 12 | Airbus UK BroughtonAirbus UK | 22 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 13 | 66 | -53 | -2 |
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