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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 47.04%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 28.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-2 (7.97%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 1-0 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bala Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Bala Town |
28.13% ( 0.98) | 24.84% ( 0.29) | 47.04% ( -1.26) |
| Both teams to score 55.01% ( -0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.22% ( -0.59) | 47.78% ( 0.59) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.03% ( -0.54) | 69.97% ( 0.54) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.08% ( 0.43) | 30.92% ( -0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.79% ( 0.5) | 67.21% ( -0.5) |
| Bala Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.64% ( -0.76) | 20.37% ( 0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.23% ( -1.23) | 52.78% ( 1.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Bala Town |
| 1-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.26) 2-1 @ 6.9% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 4.34% ( 0.2)3-1 @ 2.7% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.1)Other @ 2.95% Total : 28.13% | 1-1 @ 11.76% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 6.3% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 5.49% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.83% | 0-1 @ 10.02% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.36% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 7.97% ( -0.19)1-3 @ 4.96% ( -0.18)0-3 @ 4.23% ( -0.2)2-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.98% ( -0.12)0-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.12)2-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.76% Total : 47.04% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 22 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 77 | 14 | 63 | 62 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 59 | 29 | 30 | 47 |
| 3 | Bala TownBala Town | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 37 |
| 4 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 34 |
| 5 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 33 |
| 6 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 41 | -1 | 31 |
| 7 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 28 |
| 8 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 28 |
| 9 | Barry Town UnitedBarry | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 23 |
| 10 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 15 |
| 11 | Colwyn Bay | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 14 |
| 12 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 31 | -18 | 13 |
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