Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 45.28%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 27.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.81%) and 1-2 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.84%), while for a Nacional win it was 1-0 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
