Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 70.36%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Cerrito had a probability of 9.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.4%) and 3-0 (9.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.92%), while for a Cerrito win it was 0-1 (4.59%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.