Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boston River win with a probability of 41.85%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 28.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boston River win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.41%) and 1-2 (8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.26%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 1-0 (11%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
0.19) 
-0.08) 
