Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 37.36%. A win for Boston River had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 30.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.42%) and 2-1 (7.26%). The likeliest Boston River win was 0-1 (12.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Penarol in this match.
-0.03) 
0.32) 
