Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 55.28%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 20.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.37%) and 1-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.42%), while for a Defensor Sporting win it was 1-0 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
