SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 40.28%. A win for Como had a probability of 34% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Como win was 0-1 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Spezia | Draw | Como |
40.28% ( 2.26) | 25.71% ( -0.38) | 34% ( -1.88) |
| Both teams to score 54.86% ( 0.97) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.78% ( 1.38) | 49.22% ( -1.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.72% ( 1.23) | 71.28% ( -1.23) |
| Spezia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.86% ( 1.83) | 24.14% ( -1.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.54% ( 2.54) | 58.45% ( -2.54) |
| Como Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.32% ( -0.48) | 27.68% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.77% ( -0.61) | 63.23% ( 0.61) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spezia | Draw | Como |
| 1-0 @ 9.5% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.67% ( 0.31)2-0 @ 6.75% ( 0.33)3-1 @ 4.11% ( 0.35)3-0 @ 3.2% ( 0.31)3-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.19)4-1 @ 1.46% ( 0.19)4-0 @ 1.14% ( 0.16)4-2 @ 0.94% ( 0.11)Other @ 1.9% Total : 40.28% | 1-1 @ 12.19% ( -0.21) 0-0 @ 6.68% ( -0.39)2-2 @ 5.57% ( 0.13)3-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.71% | 0-1 @ 8.58% ( -0.62) 1-2 @ 7.84% ( -0.24)0-2 @ 5.51% ( -0.48)1-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 2.38% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.24)1-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.89% Total : 34% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Parma | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 37 | 17 | 20 | 41 |
| 2 | Como | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 38 |
| 3 | Cittadella | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 36 |
| 4 | VeneziaVenezia | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 35 |
| 5 | CatanzaroCatanzaro | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 33 |
| 6 | Cremonese | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 32 |
| 7 | Palermo | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 32 |
| 8 | Brescia | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 28 |
| 9 | Modena | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 28 |
| 10 | BariBari | 20 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 26 |
| 11 | Reggiana | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 24 |
| 12 | SudtirolSudtirol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 23 |
| 13 | Sampdoria | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 23 |
| 14 | Pisa | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 23 |
| 15 | Cosenza CalcioCosenza | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 21 |
| 16 | Lecco | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 20 |
| 17 | Ternana | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 18 |
| 18 | AscoliAscoli | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 17 |
| 19 | SpeziaSpezia | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 17 |
| 20 | FeralpiSaloFeralpiSalo | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 36 | -19 | 14 |
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