Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 41.48%. A win for Como had a probability of 33.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Como win was 0-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.