SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 53.26%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Modena had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a Modena win it was 0-1 (7.28%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bari would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bari | Draw | Modena |
53.26% ( -0.22) | 24.83% ( 0.06) | 21.9% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 48.88% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.12% ( -0.05) | 52.87% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.51% ( -0.05) | 74.49% ( 0.04) |
| Bari Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.18% ( -0.11) | 19.82% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.1% ( -0.18) | 51.9% ( 0.18) |
| Modena Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.96% ( 0.13) | 39.04% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.24% ( 0.13) | 75.76% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bari | Draw | Modena |
| 1-0 @ 12.52% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 10.13% ( -0.05)2-1 @ 9.53% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.47% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.42% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.21% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 2.77% Total : 53.25% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.74% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.83% Total : 24.83% | 0-1 @ 7.28% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 5.54% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 3.42% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.45% Total : 21.9% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| P | FrosinoneFrosinone | 36 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 57 | 22 | 35 | 74 |
| 2 | Genoa | 36 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 47 | 22 | 25 | 71 |
| 3 | BariBari | 36 | 16 | 14 | 6 | 54 | 33 | 21 | 62 |
| 4 | SudtirolSudtirol | 36 | 14 | 15 | 7 | 36 | 31 | 5 | 57 |
| 5 | CagliariCagliari | 36 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 47 | 33 | 14 | 54 |
| 6 | Parma | 35 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 38 | 5 | 51 |
| 7 | Palermo | 36 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 48 |
| 8 | Pisa | 36 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 46 | 39 | 7 | 46 |
| 9 | VeneziaVenezia | 36 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 46 |
| 10 | AscoliAscoli | 36 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 46 |
| 11 | RegginaReggina | 36 | 16 | 4 | 16 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 45 |
| 12 | Modena | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 45 |
| 13 | Como | 36 | 9 | 16 | 11 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 43 |
| 14 | Ternana | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 43 |
| 15 | Cittadella | 36 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Cosenza CalcioCosenza | 36 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 29 | 51 | -22 | 39 |
| 17 | Brescia | 35 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 33 | 52 | -19 | 38 |
| 18 | Perugia | 36 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 36 |
| 19 | SPALSPAL | 36 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 35 |
| 20 | BeneventoBenevento | 36 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 32 |
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