Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 56.5%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 19.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.55%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.

Result
Fiorentina	Draw	Cagliari
56.5% ( 0.77)	23.62% ( 0.03)	19.87% ( -0.8)

Both teams to score 49.61% (

-1.29)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.56% (

-1.11)

50.44% (

1.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.63% (

-0.99)

72.37% (

0.99)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.34% (

-0.13)

17.66% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.72% (

-0.22)

48.28% (

0.22)

Cagliari Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.25% (

-1.48)

39.75% (

1.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.58% (

-1.39)

76.42% (

1.39)

Score Analysis

Fiorentina 56.5%

Cagliari 19.87%

Draw 23.61%

Fiorentina	Draw	Cagliari
1-0 @ 12.17% ( 0.49) 2-0 @ 10.55% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 5.63% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.44% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.13% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.6% Total : 56.5%	1-1 @ 11.22% 0-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.2) Other @ 0.88% Total : 23.61%	0-1 @ 6.48% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.21) 0-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.33% Total : 19.87%