Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 82.9%. A draw had a probability of 11.3% and a win for Ural Yekaterinburg had a probability of 5.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.35%) and 4-0 (8.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.33%), while for a Ural Yekaterinburg win it was 1-2 (1.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.
