SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 62.37%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Sochi had a probability of 17.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.59%), while for a Sochi win it was 1-2 (4.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spartak Moscow | Draw | Sochi |
62.37% ( 0.29) | 20.45% ( -0.07) | 17.17% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 54.92% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.09% ( -0.04) | 40.9% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.7% ( -0.04) | 63.29% ( 0.03) |
| Spartak Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.44% ( 0.07) | 12.56% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.38% ( 0.15) | 38.62% ( -0.15) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.81% ( -0.27) | 37.18% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.03% ( -0.27) | 73.97% ( 0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spartak Moscow | Draw | Sochi |
| 2-0 @ 10.05% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 9.94% ( -0)1-0 @ 9.69% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 6.95% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 6.88% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 3.61% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.57% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.76% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.55% Total : 62.37% | 1-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 4.67% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 20.45% | 1-2 @ 4.74% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 4.62% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 2.29% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.34% Total : 17.17% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 28 |
| 2 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 13 | 14 | 26 |
| 3 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 20 |
| 6 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 18 |
| 7 | Dynamo Moscow | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Nizhny Novgorod | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | RostovRostov | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 16 |
| 10 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 16 |
| 11 | Rubin Kazan | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 16 |
| 12 | Fakel | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 15 |
| 13 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | OrenburgOrenburg | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 | Baltika | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Sochi | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 9 |
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