SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 48.81%. A win for Rostov had a probability of 27.24% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.29%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Rostov win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Orenburg | Draw | Rostov |
48.81% ( -0.38) | 23.95% ( 0.25) | 27.24% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 57.27% ( -0.72) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.51% ( -1) | 44.49% ( 1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.14% ( -0.97) | 66.86% ( 0.98) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.66% ( -0.53) | 18.34% ( 0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.56% ( -0.91) | 49.44% ( 0.92) |
| Rostov Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.13% ( -0.41) | 29.87% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.04% ( -0.5) | 65.96% ( 0.51) |
| Score Analysis |
| Orenburg | Draw | Rostov |
| 2-1 @ 9.52% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 9.29% ( 0.24)2-0 @ 7.88% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 5.38% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 4.46% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 2.28% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 1.89% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.38% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.47% Total : 48.81% | 1-1 @ 11.22% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 5.75% ( -0.08)0-0 @ 5.48% ( 0.23)3-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.94% | 1-2 @ 6.78% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.21)0-2 @ 4% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 2.73% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.18% Total : 27.24% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 35 |
| 2 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 33 |
| 3 | Dynamo Moscow | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 31 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 31 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 30 |
| 6 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 27 | 9 | 29 |
| 7 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 28 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 25 |
| 9 | Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 24 |
| 10 | Fakel | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 20 |
| 11 | RostovRostov | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 20 |
| 12 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 19 |
| 13 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 16 |
| 14 | OrenburgOrenburg | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 14 |
| 15 | Baltika | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Sochi | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 10 |
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