SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 52.29%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 24.28% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest Fakel win was 0-1 (6.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Orenburg | Draw | Fakel |
52.29% ( -0.01) | 23.44% | 24.28% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 56.08% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.27% ( 0.01) | 44.73% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.91% ( 0.01) | 67.09% ( -0.01) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.89% ( 0) | 17.11% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.68% ( 0) | 47.32% ( -0) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.66% ( 0.01) | 32.34% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.15% ( 0.01) | 68.85% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Orenburg | Draw | Fakel |
| 1-0 @ 9.77% ( -0) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0)2-0 @ 8.63% ( -0)3-1 @ 5.73% 3-0 @ 5.08% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.23% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.53% 4-0 @ 2.24% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.43% Other @ 3.92% Total : 52.29% | 1-1 @ 11.02% 0-0 @ 5.53% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.49% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.43% | 0-1 @ 6.25% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.22% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.53% 1-3 @ 2.34% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.07% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.33% Other @ 2.55% Total : 24.28% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 33 |
| 2 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 32 |
| 3 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 24 | 12 | 29 |
| 4 | Dynamo Moscow | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 28 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 27 |
| 6 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 25 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 25 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 25 |
| 9 | Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 24 |
| 10 | RostovRostov | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 20 |
| 11 | Fakel | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | OrenburgOrenburg | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 13 |
| 15 | Baltika | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Sochi | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 10 |
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