SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 47.79%. A win for Rostov had a probability of 28.93% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Rostov win was 1-2 (7.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Orenburg | Draw | Rostov |
47.79% ( 0.72) | 23.27% ( -0.31) | 28.93% ( -0.41) |
| Both teams to score 60.95% ( 0.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.78% ( 1.19) | 40.22% ( -1.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.4% ( 1.22) | 62.59% ( -1.22) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.91% ( 0.73) | 17.09% ( -0.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.71% ( 1.28) | 47.28% ( -1.28) |
| Rostov Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.51% ( 0.32) | 26.49% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.32% ( 0.43) | 61.67% ( -0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Orenburg | Draw | Rostov |
| 2-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8% ( -0.25)2-0 @ 7.06% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.15)3-0 @ 4.16% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 3.67% ( 0.13)4-1 @ 2.44% ( 0.12)4-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.1)Other @ 4.09% Total : 47.79% | 1-1 @ 10.62% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( 0.08)0-0 @ 4.53% ( -0.25)3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.27% | 1-2 @ 7.06% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 6.01% ( -0.28)0-2 @ 4% ( -0.15)1-3 @ 3.13% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.76% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.26% Total : 28.93% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 28 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 72 | 19 | 53 | 66 |
| 2 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 52 | 26 | 26 | 54 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 53 |
| 4 | RostovRostov | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 44 | 38 | 6 | 50 |
| 5 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 49 |
| 6 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 60 | 44 | 16 | 46 |
| 7 | Dynamo Moscow | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 45 |
| 8 | OrenburgOrenburg | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 40 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 39 |
| 10 | Sochi | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 |
| 11 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 30 |
| 12 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 29 |
| 13 | Fakel | 28 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 27 |
| 14 | Nizhny Novgorod | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 27 | 50 | -23 | 23 |
| 15 | KhimkiKhimki | 28 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 62 | -37 | 18 |
| 16 | Torpedo Moskva | 28 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 55 | -35 | 13 |
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