SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 42.59%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 31.84% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Fakel win was 1-0 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fakel | Draw | Rostov |
31.84% ( 0.08) | 25.57% ( -0.02) | 42.59% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 54.66% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.82% ( 0.11) | 49.18% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.75% ( 0.1) | 71.25% ( -0.09) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.96% ( 0.11) | 29.04% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.05% ( 0.13) | 64.94% ( -0.13) |
| Rostov Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.02% ( 0.02) | 22.98% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.23% ( 0.02) | 56.77% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fakel | Draw | Rostov |
| 1-0 @ 8.25% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.5% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.1% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.09% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.56% Total : 31.84% | 1-1 @ 12.13% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 5.52% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.57% | 0-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 8.92% ( -0)0-2 @ 7.22% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.37% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.54% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.71% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.61% 0-4 @ 1.3% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 2.12% Total : 42.59% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 25 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 65 | 13 | 52 | 61 |
| 2 | RostovRostov | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 50 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 55 | 32 | 23 | 49 |
| 4 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 46 | 23 | 23 | 48 |
| 5 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 41 | 34 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | Dynamo Moscow | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 44 | 35 | 9 | 42 |
| 7 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 53 | 41 | 12 | 39 |
| 8 | OrenburgOrenburg | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 39 |
| 9 | Sochi | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 34 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 32 |
| 11 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 26 |
| 12 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 25 |
| 13 | Fakel | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 24 |
| 14 | Nizhny Novgorod | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 22 |
| 15 | KhimkiKhimki | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 24 | 58 | -34 | 17 |
| 16 | Torpedo Moskva | 26 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 20 | 49 | -29 | 13 |
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