SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dynamo Moscow win with a probability of 57.48%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Orenburg had a probability of 19.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dynamo Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.08%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for a Orenburg win it was 0-1 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dynamo Moscow would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Dynamo Moscow | Draw | Orenburg |
57.48% ( -1.4) | 22.67% ( 0.6) | 19.85% ( 0.81) |
| Both teams to score 52.52% ( -0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.46% ( -1.44) | 46.53% ( 1.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.19% ( -1.37) | 68.81% ( 1.36) |
| Dynamo Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.07% ( -0.96) | 15.93% ( 0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.81% ( -1.79) | 45.19% ( 1.78) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.47% ( 0.03) | 37.53% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.69% ( 0.03) | 74.31% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Dynamo Moscow | Draw | Orenburg |
| 1-0 @ 10.98% ( 0.31) 2-0 @ 10.08% ( -0.05)2-1 @ 9.89% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 6.18% ( -0.24)3-1 @ 6.05% ( -0.23)3-2 @ 2.97% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 2.84% ( -0.21)4-1 @ 2.78% ( -0.2)4-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.1)5-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.12)5-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.29% Total : 57.47% | 1-1 @ 10.76% ( 0.31) 0-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.35)2-2 @ 4.85% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.67% | 0-1 @ 5.86% ( 0.35) 1-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 2.87% ( 0.17)1-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.58% ( -0)0-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.6% Total : 19.85% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 7 | 43 | 45 |
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 45 | 22 | 23 | 40 |
| 3 | RostovRostov | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 35 |
| 4 | Dynamo Moscow | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 24 | 11 | 32 |
| 5 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 29 |
| 6 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 29 |
| 7 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 29 |
| 8 | OrenburgOrenburg | 19 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 28 |
| 9 | Sochi | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 28 |
| 10 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 25 |
| 11 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 20 |
| 12 | Nizhny Novgorod | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 19 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 19 |
| 14 | Fakel | 19 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 14 |
| 15 | KhimkiKhimki | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 13 |
| 16 | Torpedo Moskva | 19 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 33 | -24 | 7 |
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