SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 29.78% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (8.07%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Chaves |
43.05% ( -0.68) | 27.17% ( 0.38) | 29.78% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 48.79% ( -0.97) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.68% ( -1.31) | 56.32% ( 1.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.65% ( -1.07) | 77.35% ( 1.07) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.08% ( -0.94) | 25.92% ( 0.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.09% ( -1.29) | 60.91% ( 1.29) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.86% ( -0.46) | 34.14% ( 0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.17% ( -0.5) | 70.83% ( 0.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Famalicao | Draw | Chaves |
| 1-0 @ 11.94% ( 0.27) 2-1 @ 8.67% ( -0.14)2-0 @ 8.07% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.9% ( -0.17)3-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.12)4-1 @ 1.32% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.19% Total : 43.04% | 1-1 @ 12.83% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 8.85% ( 0.44)2-2 @ 4.66% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.16% | 0-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.35) 1-2 @ 6.9% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.11% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.3% Total : 29.78% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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