SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 44.16%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 28.88% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Santa Clara | Draw | Chaves |
28.88% ( 0.12) | 26.96% ( 0.26) | 44.16% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 48.94% ( -0.7) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.09% ( -0.94) | 55.9% ( 0.94) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.99% ( -0.77) | 77.01% ( 0.77) |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.4% ( -0.41) | 34.6% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.67% ( -0.43) | 71.32% ( 0.43) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.84% ( -0.61) | 25.16% ( 0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.11% ( -0.84) | 59.88% ( 0.84) |
| Score Analysis |
| Santa Clara | Draw | Chaves |
| 1-0 @ 9.24% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 6.77% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 4.9% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.73% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.2% Total : 28.88% | 1-1 @ 12.75% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 8.71% ( 0.31)2-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.83% Total : 26.96% | 0-1 @ 12.01% ( 0.22) 1-2 @ 8.8% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 8.29% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.05% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 3.81% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.08)1-4 @ 1.4% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.34% Total : 44.15% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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