SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 48.55%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Santa Clara had a probability of 24.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.51%) and 2-1 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.51%), while for a Santa Clara win it was 0-1 (8.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Santa Clara |
48.55% ( 0.43) | 26.64% ( -0.05) | 24.81% ( -0.39) |
| Both teams to score 46.91% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.94% ( -0.1) | 57.06% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.06% ( -0.08) | 77.95% ( 0.08) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.44% ( 0.16) | 23.56% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.38% ( 0.23) | 57.63% ( -0.23) |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.37% ( -0.4) | 38.63% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.63% ( -0.39) | 75.38% ( 0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Santa Clara |
| 1-0 @ 13.15% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 9.51% ( 0.12)2-1 @ 9.05% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 4.58% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.66% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.58% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.6% Total : 48.54% | 1-1 @ 12.51% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.72% Total : 26.63% | 0-1 @ 8.66% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 5.95% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.53% Total : 24.82% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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