While Casa Pia's inconsistency has been evident in recent weeks, the timing could not be better to secure their first-ever win against the struggling visitors, with Vicente's poor run and turmoil in the dugout leaving them vulnerable.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 36.17%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 34.61% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.44%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (12.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
-0.03) 
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