SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 44.41%. A win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 30.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-2 (7.61%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Nottingham Forest | Draw | Aston Villa |
30.14% ( 1.63) | 25.45% ( 0.18) | 44.41% ( -1.8) |
| Both teams to score 54.28% ( 0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.69% ( 0.08) | 49.31% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.63% ( 0.07) | 71.36% ( -0.07) |
| Nottingham Forest Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.74% ( 1.22) | 30.26% ( -1.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.58% ( 1.43) | 66.42% ( -1.43) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.83% ( -0.79) | 22.17% ( 0.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.43% ( -1.2) | 55.56% ( 1.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nottingham Forest | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 1-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 7.22% ( 0.28)2-0 @ 4.79% ( 0.3)3-1 @ 2.88% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 2.17% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.18)Other @ 3.15% Total : 30.14% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 6.71% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.44% | 0-1 @ 10.1% ( -0.27) 1-2 @ 9.1% ( -0.16)0-2 @ 7.61% ( -0.4)1-3 @ 4.57% ( -0.19)0-3 @ 3.82% ( -0.3)2-3 @ 2.73% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.72% ( -0.12)0-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.15)2-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.29% Total : 44.41% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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