SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 55.26%. A win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 23.03% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.13%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest win was 1-2 (5.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.85%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
55.26% ( 0.42) | 21.71% ( -0.19) | 23.03% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 60.56% ( 0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.88% ( 0.65) | 38.11% ( -0.65) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.61% ( 0.69) | 60.38% ( -0.68) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.22% ( 0.35) | 13.77% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.92% ( 0.69) | 41.08% ( -0.69) |
| Nottingham Forest Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.23% ( 0.17) | 29.77% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.16% ( 0.21) | 65.84% ( -0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
| 2-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.13% ( -0.15)2-0 @ 8.06% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 6.45% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 5.32% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 3.2% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.94% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 1.27% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.54% Total : 55.26% | 1-1 @ 9.85% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 4.1% ( -0.13)3-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.26% Total : 21.71% | 1-2 @ 5.97% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 4.97% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.39% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.07% Total : 23.03% |
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