SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 55.63%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 23.86% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.81%) and 3-1 (6.76%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 1-2 (5.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Newcastle United |
55.63% ( 0.22) | 20.51% ( 0.01) | 23.86% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 66.12% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.68% ( -0.32) | 31.32% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.23% ( -0.38) | 52.77% ( 0.38) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.57% ( -0.04) | 11.43% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.78% ( -0.1) | 36.22% ( 0.1) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.66% ( -0.34) | 25.34% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.87% ( -0.47) | 60.13% ( 0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Newcastle United |
| 2-1 @ 9.35% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 6.81% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 6.76% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 6.28% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 4.64% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 3.67% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.67% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.59% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)4-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.01% Total : 55.63% | 1-1 @ 8.62% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.42% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.45% Total : 20.51% | 1-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 3.98% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.94% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.4% Total : 23.86% |
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