SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 47.71%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 26.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Aston Villa |
47.71% ( -0.02) | 25.66% ( 0.01) | 26.63% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 51.27% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.85% ( -0.03) | 52.15% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.13% ( -0.03) | 73.87% ( 0.03) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.14% ( -0.02) | 21.86% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.9% ( -0.03) | 55.1% ( 0.03) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.61% ( -0.01) | 34.39% ( 0.01) |
